Last week (July 27–31, 2026) was defined by three main drivers: a hawkish Fed pause, big tech earnings amid selling in AI stocks, and the Middle East war escalation. The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% but surprised with a 9-3 split vote favoring a hike, sending the 30-year Treasury yield to its highest since 2007, around 5.25%. Mid-week, semiconductors cratered toward their worst month since 2002, dragging the Nasdaq into correction territory.
By Friday, Microsoft (+16%) and Amazon (+15%) triggered a powerful recovery — both their cloud businesses reported very strong results — lifting the S&P 500 +1.0% and Nasdaq +1.6% on the week. Apple (-8.5%) and Meta (-7%) disappointed on guidance and cash flow. Oil surged above $90 as Iran rejected a ceasefire proposal. Gold held near $4,060, Bitcoin around $64,000, and the DXY dollar fell 1.5%.
For the week ahead, July Nonfarm Payrolls is the key data point — markets price a 60-70% chance of a September Fed hike. On the geopolitical front, during the weekend Trump called off what he said would be a major strike in Iran, bringing back hopes of a peace deal soon.
